Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Today

severe feat

10:15 AM Tuesday

Another round of severe weather may impact the Tennessee Valley today. Severe thunderstorms will likely develop over the region this afternoon and evening. The primary threat is damaging winds in excess of 60 mph, however large hail over quarter size and locally heavy rainfall are also possible. The tornado threat is slightly elevated for today as a few tornadoes are possible.

 

Timing

Models indicate strong to severe t-storms developing between 3-5 pm this afternoon.

Timing today’s severe weather is extremely difficult because we’re dealing with different types of thunderstorm complexes hitting the region. The first is already taking place. A line of mostly non-severe storms is rolling south across the region this morning. While not severe, these storms are dropping a lot of rain and may also produce isolated damaging winds. These storms should be mostly out of the region by noon.

After noon is when the real action starts. Severe weather is possible anytime from noon to midnight. Onset of severe thunderstorms will likely be between 3 and 5 pm. Tracking south, storms will continue through this evening, gradually diminishing after dark. By midnight, the severe threat should be mostly if not completely over.

 

Locations

Severe weather is possible for the entire region, but some locations will see a greater chance than others. Southeast Tennessee, the Central Valley, and the Cumberland Plateau will see the greatest chance of severe weather for our region. Basically, the further west you are, the greater chance you have of experiencing severe weather. This includes Knoxville, Chattanooga, Oak Ridge, Crossville, Cleveland, LaFollette, and Oneida.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed most the region under an Enhanced Risk for severe t-storms today.

 

Threats

All modes of severe weather are possible this afternoon and evening. The primary threat is damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. Large hail over an inch in diameter will likely accompany some storms. Many storms will produce heavy rainfall, which may result in flash flooding. The tornado threat remains relatively low but slightly elevated. There is potential for a few tornadoes.

 

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As always, we will continue to monitor this developing situation and will keep you posted.

~Lead Forecaster Slater Teague