Update #2: Saturday severe weather

severe feat

3:45 AM Saturday

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Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across the region on Saturday. While there remains some uncertainty about the specifics, it is clear that this will likely be a high-impact event. All modes of severe weather are possible. The primary concern remains widespread damaging winds. Large hail will likely accompany some storms. While we are not expected a tornado “outbreak”, isolated tornadoes are certainly possible.

Saturday will start with scattered showers and thunderstorms. These storms should not be severe and will taper off in the afternoon. Cloud cover is expected to dissipate, allowing for just enough sunshine to heat things up and destabilize the atmosphere. A few isolated severe storms are possible during this time. Later in the afternoon and into the evening hours, strong to severe thunderstorms become likely. These will be the strongest and most-dangerous storms of the day.

 

Locations:
Severe weather will be possible across the entire region. However, locations near the TN/KY border will see the greatest chance of severe weather. Those living in the Central Valley, including Knoxville, will also see a significant risk. But, once again, severe storms are possible region-wide.

The Storm Prediction Center has the Central Valley and locations near the KY/TN border under an Enhanced Risk for severe weather. All other locations are under a Slight Risk.

Timing:
Strong to severe t-storms will be possible anytime after noon. However, any severe weather that occurs before 5 PM should be isolated. After 5 PM, organized severe weather becomes likely. Unfortunately, a more specific timing forecast is not feasible at this time. But for now, the best chance of severe weather will be between 5 PM and midnight.

Threats:

The greatest threat is damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. Widespread damaging winds are possible. Large hail over an inch in diameter will likely accompany several storms. Isolated tornadoes are also very possible, but we are not expecting an “outbreak” of tornadoes in East Tennessee. Nevertheless, the tornado threat should be taken seriously. 

Another update will be posted around noon Saturday. Stay tuned.

~Lead Forecaster Slater Teague

 

ALERT: Widespread snowfall likely today; follow NWS for the latest